News

NEWS RELEASE: Congressman Mo Brooks Has 99.8% Chance of Winning in November

August 20, 2018

Huntsville, AL— Nate Silver’s highly-respected political forecasting site FiveThirtyEight.com has analyzed Alabama’s 5th Congressional District race and given Socialist Peter Joffrion a two-tenths of 1% chance of beating Congressman Mo Brooks in the general election. Conversely, Congressman Brooks has a 99.8% chance of winning the election. The site predicts Congressman Brooks will prevail with 63.5% of the vote versus Socialist Peter Joffrion’s 36.5%.

FiveThirtyEight’s analysis is consistent with general election results in 2010, 2012, and 2016, wherein Congressman Brooks defeated Democrat challengers with an average of 63.3% of the vote. Democrats failed to field a candidate in 2014.

Past presidential election results portray the 5th Congressional District as a deeply conservative district that keeps getting redder and redder. John McCain received 61% of the vote in the 5th District in 2008, Mitt Romney received 64% in 2012, and Donald Trump received 65% in 2016.

Congressman Brooks said, “In effect, Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com give Socialist Peter Joffrion only a two-tenths of 1% chance of being able to persuade 5th District voters that Socialism, open borders, illegal alien amnesty, national defense cuts, higher taxes, more welfare, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are good for America and the Tennessee Valley. Peter Joffrion is by far the most extreme candidate Democrats have offered in Alabama’s 5th District. If less extreme Democrats can’t come close to winning, what chance does Socialist Peter Joffrion have? The answer: 2 tenths of 1% according to highly-respected political forecasting site FiveThirtyEight.com.”

Brooks concluded, “With the exception of Democrats’ 2017 Senate win in a low voter turnout special election shortly before the Christmas and New Years holidays, over the last eight years Tennessee Valley voters have rejected 5th District-wide Democrat candidates by large, double digit margins. Now Democrats offer up Socialist Peter Joffrion, who was motivated to run to ‘Stop Donald Trump.’ Quite frankly, Tennessee Valley voters do not want the next two years to be all about gridlock and unfounded, partisan efforts to impeach President Donald Trump. With such an extremist candidate, the so-called Alabama ‘Blue Wave’ won’t amount to more than a ripple in the Tennessee Valley in November. As long as Republicans turn out in November, we will keep this seat, continue to implement America First policies, and reap the benefit of the explosive economic growth, higher wages, lower taxes, and more jobs America has enjoyed since the 2016 elections!” 

###